Lunch Forum: Economic Outlook 2019 with Paul Bloxham
An Update from HSBC’s Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities
The German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce, together with our Executive Member HSBC, has the great pleasure to invite you to an exclusive Lunch Forum with HSBC’s Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities Paul Bloxham, who will provide an Economic Outlook for the year 2019. Paul will provide fresh perspective on the Australia's economy within the context of slowing global growth, continued trade tensions and a cooling housing market. Paul will share his generally upbeat views on Australia’s growth prospects supported to China's rising middle classes and their demand for energy, housing, infrastructure and high-quality food.
Navigating an uncertain world
Australia's economy has performed well and is now in its 28th year of continuous GDP growth. But how long can it last? For the past couple of years, the local economy has had the support of a strong global wave of growth, but as the US fiscal stimulus wears off and trade tensions continue to fester, world growth is set to slow. Helpfully, Australia's fortunes are mostly tied to China's rising middle classes and their demand for energy, housing, infrastructure and high-quality food -- which supports commodity demand -- as well as services -- like education and tourism. But even China faces the test of rising trade protectionism. After riding a global wave of growth in recent years, 2019 may prove to be a more challenging global backdrop for Australia.
Locally, Australia is also navigating its own uncharted seas, as the housing market cools in the major cities, at the same time that jobs growth is strong and the unemployment rate is falling. Politics will also play a bigger role in 2019, with an election due in the first half. We remain generally upbeat about Australia's growth prospects, but the outlook is also quite uncertain, particularly given the global backdrop.
About Paul Bloxham
Paul Bloxham is HSBC's Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities. He is chief spokesperson for HSBC on forecasts and trends for the Australian and NZ economies and their interaction with global financial markets and international economies.
Prior to joining HSBC in 2010, Paul Bloxham spent 12 years as an economist within the Reserve Bank of Australia's Economic Analysis Department where he headed up the overseas economies and financial conditions sections, as well as working on domestic forecasting and prices. Paul is a regular commentator on local and international business television and a frequent contributor of opinion editorials to the Australian newspapers. Paul is also a member of the Australian National University's Shadow Reserve Bank Board and is and Adjunct Professor at Curtin University. He holds a Master's degree in public financial policy from the London School of Economics.